Summits

Boosted by the presence of Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, European leaders united once again under the auspices of the EPC on 1 June 2023 in Bulboaca, Moldova. Although San Marino and Turkey’s delegations dropped out at the last minute, the latter supposedly due to newly re-elected President Erdoğan’s political manoeuvring to form a government, the Summit was hailed a success once again for the strong unity on show in the face of Russia’s senseless war in Ukraine.

True to its informal, unscripted format, discussions revolved around the priorities of the day. This time, energy, climate, and the economic situation took more of a backseat to issues of security and peace and the EU enlargement agenda of Moldova and Ukraine in particular. Blowing against the political winds that have pushed to open borders to Ukrainian refugees rather than close them to those fleeing conflict and economic crisis in the Global South, the UK played an inconsequential role by signaling (again) where it thought the EPC could present value-added: migration.

The results of the second EPC Summit were again of mixed nature: high-level political statements, concrete deliverables (e.g., France agreeing to train Ukrainian jet pilots), and political dialogue regarding Nagorno-Karabakh (as in the 1st Summit) and between Serbia and Kosovo. Of note were a series of measures the EU announced in support of Moldova in the run-up and on the sidelines of the Summit: sanctions against nefarious Moldovan individuals on Putin’s payroll, the delivery of non-lethal military equipment via the European Peace Facility, and more affordable cellular roaming costs between Moldova and the EU, among others.

In view of the next Summit in Granada under a Spanish Government that has yet to be voted in, Heads of State and Government must seriously consider what direction they believe the EPC is moving in. If, as seen in Moldova, security and peace becomes an important fil rouge, then Macron’s plan for a thematically wide-ranging EPC that withstands the test of time beyond war in Ukraine is up for question. If, instead, each hosting country is essentially able to steer the agenda of the EPC as it sees fit, then the risk is that it will lose political buy-in at the first disagreement – e.g., potentially the UK’s insistence to focus on migration in the first semester of 2024. For the EPC to build sustainable momentum, it should be accompanied by a civil society driven forum that may help shape its future.

The third EPC summit took place in Granada, Spain on 5 October 2023 on the eve of the informal European Council meeting of EU heads of state and government on 6 October 2023. Three roundtable discussions on (1) digitalisation, (2) energy, environment and the green transition, and (3) multilateralism and geostrategy were foreseen in order to expand coordination and consultation to the wider European level on priorities of the Spanish rotating presidency of the Council of the EU.

Despite a record turnout of 49 leaders, the EPC Summit suffered from the absence of Turkey’s President Erdoğan, his second in a row, and Azerbaijan’s President Aliyev, the instigator of another armed offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh causing over 100,000 Armenians to flee and require humanitarian assistance. Kosovo’s powerful Prime Minister Albin Kurti also abstained, protesting Serbia’s alleged involvement in the 24 September 2023 attack in northern Kosovo. Kosovo’s President, who holds a largely ceremonial function, attended again instead but this time refused to meet the Serbian President Vučić. The Granada summit was therefore held in a markedly different spirit compared to the EPC summit in Moldova just four months prior.

In addition, in a notable turn of rhetoric, attention shifted from supporting Ukraine’s defence against Russia’s unjustified invasion to seeking the EU’s renewed commitment to maintaining that support in light of debt ceiling-related news out of Washington DC that its (primarily military) support could be on the chopping block. Notable was the warm general support to Ukrainian President Zelensky, but the absence of a common statement and concrete initiatives. 

Whereas the EPC marked a failure to progress on challenges to Europe’s security and stability, it upped the urgency for EU leaders to show other commitments (cf. Macron’s announcement to bolster cooperation on cyber-crime across Europe) and deliberate the EU’s enlargement framework and the necessary institutional reforms that might require, as well as the EU’s migration pact during the following day’s informal European Council. 

Notwithstanding the Spanish Presidency’s attempts to keep migration off the agenda, the UK and Italy set up an unforeseen roundtable to discuss a series of political initiatives with France, Albania and the European Commission on migration. The UK also agreed to deals with Belgium, Bulgaria and Serbia to increase intelligence-sharing and operational co-operation on organised crime.

Presumably in response to the UK’s perceived intransigence, Spain abruptly cancelled the final press conference, the expected highlight of the summit for about 700 journalists which was meant to include statements about outcomes of the summit and formally mark the handover of the EPC Presidency to the United Kingdom, which is expected to host the gathering in March 2024. This added to a general sense of the waning impact of the EPC.